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Re: Ecological Economics and Entropy
Since China produced 465 million tons of grain last year, a prediction
that they will import 43 million tons in 2010 is precise to the point
of absurdity. The year to year fluctuations in production are of that
order of magnitude.
Two additional data points.
1. The Chinese agriculture minister insisted that China was a net
exporter of food this year and denies that China will become a net
importer in the next century.
2. The 1996 November Scientific American has an article about a 3 year
tour of Chinese provinces and hundreds of interviews with Chinese
peasants. The conclusion is that China's production of food could
increase a lot if there were low tech investments in terracing, in
drainage and in irrigation, and that the peasants would make these
investments if they had security of tenure in land, i.e. if the local
officials couldn't reassign it. The peasants want land tenure to be
inheritable.
I notice that McGinnis forgot about substantiating his statement that
the number of people facing starvation has doubled since 1989. That
is not in accordance with anything said at the recent food conferences
in Washington and Rome - even by Lester Brown.
Perhaps McGinnis was just saying what would fit his moralistic pose.
--
John McCarthy, Computer Science Department, Stanford, CA 94305
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/
During the last years of the Second Millenium, the Earthmen complained
a lot.
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