If 1999 population estimates released today are accurate,
Oklahoma has slipped even further behind in the musical chairs
game called congressional apportionment.
The U.S. Census Bureau's latest estimates continue to show that
Oklahoma will lose one of the six seats it now holds in the U.S.
House of Representatives - and that the gap has widened since 1998.
Oklahoma falls short of holding onto its sixth seat by about
60,900 people, the 1999 estimates show. That shortfall is roughly
equal to the estimated 1998 population of Edmond.
Last year's figures showed Oklahoma missing out on a sixth seat
by 37,800 people.
Oklahoma's gap widened from 1998 to 1999 by a number roughly
equal to the population of Ardmore or Yukon.
Between error in the Census Bureau's annual population estimates
and actual population growth, however, the apportionment picture
will certainly change after the 2000 Census.
In 1989, the Census Bureau placed Oklahoma's population at
3,150,307. The 1990 Census showed the bureau had overestimated the
state's population. The state's actual population, by the 1990
Census, was 3,145,585 - 0.15 percent less than the 1989 estimate.
The Census Bureau in 1979 estimated Oklahoma's population at
2,975,310. The 1980 Census showed Oklahoma's population was
actually 1.7 percent larger, 3,025,290.
The count of Oklahomans living abroad also will affect the
apportionment picture.
Gregory Harper of the Census Bureau's Population Division said
annual population estimates do not include counts of people living
abroad. The 1990 census counted 12,019 Oklahomans living abroad.
A like number in the 2000 census would not be enough to close
the apportionment gap shown for Oklahoma.
But Karen Mills, who works in the Census Bureau branch
responsible for congressional apportionment, said the count of
Oklahomans living abroad was responsible in 1970 for taking a
congressional seat away from Connecticut and handing it to Oklahoma.
In 1990, Mills said, the count of residents living abroad gave
Washington state a seat, at the expense of Massachusetts.
E.Z. Million, a Norman consultant and statistician who's tracked
census data for 30 years, said this latest census information is
terrible news for Oklahoma.
"The Census Bureau's estimated population count for each state,
as of July 1, 1999, gives Oklahoma virtually no hope of retaining
its sixth congressional seat after the 2000 Census," Million said.
"This new data is just awful. Remember, these are still only
estimates, but with Census Day, April 1, 2000, now only three
months away, OK6 ( Oklahoma's sixth seat) is fading fast."
For several years Million has urged Oklahoma political leaders
to take dramatic steps to increase population.
He urged tax breaks, including ones to attract more retirees.
With 435 U.S. House seats to be allocated, based on the census,
Oklahoma's ranking for its sixth seat dropped to 446, Million said.
That means Oklahoma is 11 states from qualifying for that 435th
seat, he said.
Gov. Frank Keating said passage of measures Republicans have
pushed, such as right-to- work, could have increased Oklahoma's
population enough to prevent a seat loss. Having a Legislature
controlled by Democrats kept that from happening, he said.
Still, Keating thinks losing a seat would be "largely a
psychological loss." It's likely the state would retain enough
political clout to keep its military installations and federal
offices, for instance.
If Oklahoma loses a congressional seat, the Oklahoma
Legislature's job of redrawing congressional boundary lines will be
even more difficult than it has been in the past.
The legislators elected next year will be drawing new
congressional and legislative district lines in the legislative
session that begins in 2001.
"During the last census, we allowed the congressional delegation
to draw its own lines," said state House Speaker Loyd Benson,
D-Frederick. "It will be more difficult if we have to eliminate one
member of Congress."
Benson said this latest information is no surprise to those
who've been following it.
"It is disappointing news but no new news," he said. "I think we
just have to work harder at being attractive to people and
continuing our economic development efforts."
Many thought Oklahoma would lose a congressional seat 10 years
ago, he said.
The loss of a U.S. House member means Oklahoma will be
represented on fewer congressional committees, Million said.
"Every congressman is on about four committees," he said.
The census also affects distribution of federal funds.
That's why Oklahoma must ensure that the census count is as
accurate as possible, Million said.
Various estimates indicate that each person in a state
represents $1,500 in federal money to the state during the decade,
Million said.
CONTRIBUTING: Political editor Anthony Thornton